NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread
This is my week 44 picks against the spread. Last week I went 1–2 putting me below .500 for the year. The Bears game result was due to some unfortunate events that happened during that game. Matt Nagy just had to pull Trubisky from the game which immediately gave life into Chicago’s offense as Nick Foles played well in relief.
During the Saints game, I knew I messed up after the first quarter as the Saints offense was so conservative and Green Bay just had more vertical components and could beat you multiple ways. So, now he have week 4, the quarter mark of the NFL season. Without wasting any time here is my week 4 pick
Game 1: Seahawks (-7.5) vs Dolphins
Pick: Dolphins (+7.5) vs Seahawks
This is probably my favorite pick of the year. I like Miami to not only cover the spread but to win outright. First of all, Seattle is in the Northwest and they have to fly Southeast to face Miami. That is a tough trip to make especially on an early start time. Seattle has also played back to back huge, emotional games, and I have seen Seattle struggle in the past when they have played huge games where everybody in the world watches. Miami also has extra rest to prepare for Seattle because they were on Thursday Night Football. When you give good coaching staffs extra time to prepare, they are always on fire the next week, and I think that Miami has one of the most underrated coaching staffs in the NFL. The Seahawks also have the worst pass defense in the NFL, as they are last in pass yards allowed, total yards allowed, and points allowed. Everybody moves the ball on the Seahawks easily ( last year, Andy Dalton and Matt Schaub threw for over 400 yards against them). Seattle also can’t get teams off the field as they are bottom 5 in the NFL in third-down defense. This means that Russell Wilson will not be on the field most games.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has been really good in his career when he is comfortable, and the Seahawks make everybody comfortable. Ryan Fitzpatrick since week 6 of last year has been competent, Throwing for 18 TD’s and 9 picks (2 to 1 TD to interception ratio) with a passer rating of 91. Those are above average numbers which should look even better once he faces this Seattle defense. Fitzpatrick has been in this league for years, so he will surely be prepared considering that he has extra prep time. The dolphins are not a bad team as they have been competitive in every game this year
Seattle in the last 2 weeks when everybody was watching looked amazing, but their flaws will be exposed in this game against a Miami team that is better than their record indicates. Even in the last 2 games, they were too reliant on Russell Wilson to save them, and that way of playing just does not last. I think that this is just a tough spot for the Seahawks to be in and a really good spot for the Dolphins right now.
This should be one of the more entertaining games of the day this week, but I think Miami pulls off the upset
Prediction: Dolphins 28 Seahawks 27
Game 2: Saints (-4) vs Lions
Pick: Saints (-4) vs lions
I know the Saints did not look good against the Packers on Sunday Night Football, but this is a really good spot for them here. They get Michael Thomas back this week, and Drew Brees will look so much better with Michael Thomas as his security blanket. Drew Brees struggled the Last 2 weeks because there was no dependable number one option to throw to. The Saints receivers outside of Michael Thomas are very solid number 2 options, but they are not number one options by any means. With Michael Thomas back, All the other receivers will go back to their original role and will be much more comfortable. By the way, for those of you complaining about the Saints offense, they are still averaging 27 points per game, so they are still capable of scoring a lot of points. The Saints defense also ranks 10th in the NFL in total yards allowed so they will take a lead early in this game. The lions don’t have a good run defense, so expect the Saints to control the clock. This Defense coupled with the Saints rushing attack will force the Lions to be one dimensional and rely on Matt Stafford’s arm to win them the game.
Don’t take too much about Detroit beating Arizona as that game was about Arizona’s mistakes than about Detroit’s dominance. The Lions still have the 5th worst total defense, so the defense will be a liability all game long. The lions also have terrible pass protection so this puts Detroit in a rough spot. Matt Stafford not only will be playing from behind but will be forced to push the ball down the field with shaky pass protection. That is simply asking way too much of him.
I think that there is more urgency for the Saints in this game, as they know that they cannot fall to 1–3. Tampa bay will probably beat the Chargers, so the Saints know that they can’t fall behind 2 games of Tampa Bay because of what Tom Brady can do in December. The Saints are playing for more in this game and I think that they will get a lead and then hold off the Lions.
Score: Saints 27 Lions 21
Game 3: Packers (-7.5) vs Falcons
Pick: Packers (-7.5) vs Falcons
I like Green Bay a lot in this spot. I get the better QB in this matchup and I get the team at home where the weather is starting to get colder. Matt Ryan and the Falcons have not fared well in cold-weather games. They are a dome team and they are now going into Green Bay where the weather is starting to get colder in October right now. Matt Ryan in his last 2 cold-weather games is 0–2, completes 54 percent of his throws for a passer rating of 71. He is not the same QB when you make him uncomfortable. The Packers are good in first-quarter scoring, so they will get out to a lead and force Matt Ryan to drop back a lot. The interior of the Falcons offensive line is shaky so Matt Ryan will be put in a tough spot. He will have to throw it down the field, because he will play from behind, behind a bad offensive line. The one thing Bay does well in defense is getting to the Quarterback as, since the start of 2019, they have been top 10 in the NFL in sacks.
The real advantage for Green Bay, however, is their offense compared to the Flacons defense. The Falcons have given up more than 30 points in every single game this year and that streak won’t end this week.
Aaron Rodgers has lit up the Falcons in his career like no other before. In his career against the Falcons, Aaron Rodgers completes 69% of his throws for 21TD’s 3 picks and a passer rating of 113, and this is probably the worst Falcons defense that he has faced. Aaron Rodgers right now is feeling red hot and there is nothing more dangerous in the NFL than a red hot Aaron Rodgers. Last week, Aaron Rodgers proved that he can distribute the football as Davante Adams was out, but Aaron still lit up the Saints.
I also think that right now Dan Quinn has lost the team. During the second half of last week, the team just quit, and I feel that the players know that Quinn is a goner. I don’t think that the Falcons are motivated or energized and they have just accepted their fate. I think that this game could get out of hand quickly here.
Score: Packers 37 Falcons 23
